Understanding household experiences with flooding in post-fire environments: risk perceptions, perceived drivers, and mitigation actions

Flood events in post-fire environments produce cascading social and ecological consequences that are challenging to anticipate, mitigate, and manage. Engaging private property owners in mitigation is complex, and the drivers that motivate action or inaction are not yet well defined. We analyse household survey data collected after multiple rainfall events that triggered flooding on and adjacent to the 2019 Museum Fire burn scar in Flagstaff, AZ, USA, to explore relationships between risk perceptions, drivers of flood risk, and mitigation actions in post-fire environments. We received 623 usable questionnaires (16% response rate) that were analysed using chi square, ANOVA, regressions, and factor analyses. Relationships between risk perceptions and mitigation strengthen after a post-fire flood event but perceived drivers of flood risk have limited influence. We also replicate and expand existing measures of individual and collective action to address flooding in post-fire environments, finding that the inclusion of locally specific actions improves their reliability. These efforts reveal growing public understanding regarding the complexities of flood risk in post-fire environments and reflect the need for communication about cascading hazards to embrace messaging that emphasises layered drivers of risk and their longevity.

Policy highlights

• Relationships between risk perceptions and mitigation strengthen after flood events in post-fire environments.
• Perceived drivers of flooding motivate the uptake of select household mitigation actions.
• Communication of flood risk and mitigation recommendations at the household level can focus resources where they are most needed.
• Clearer connection between mitigative actions and their benefits for sheltering in place during floods can prevent overreliance on insurance as a substitute for risk reduction.