USGS Fire Science - Fire danger monitoring and forecasting

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) uses moderate resolution satellite data to assess live fuel condition for estimating fire danger. Using 23 years of vegetation condition measurements, we are able to determine the relative greenness of current live fuels. High relative greenness values indicate the vegetation is healthy and vigorous; low greenness values indicate the vegetation is under stress, dry (possibly from drought), behind in annual development, or dead. Forest, shrub, and grassland vegetation with low relative greenness are susceptible to fire ignition during the fire season. The relative greenness for July 16, 2012, is shown in figure 1. The fire potential index (FPI) integrates weather information from the National Digital Forecast Database (http://www. nws.noaa.gov/ndfd/) and satellite-derived vegetation condition information, and is used to identify the areas most susceptible to fire ignition (Burgan et.al., 1998). The combination of relative greenness and weather information provides an estimate of the moisture condition of the live and dead vegetation. The FPI provides local and regional fire planners with a quantitative measure of fire ignition risk.