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adaptation

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Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change

Year of Publication
2025
Publication Type

Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards plan and act under uncertainty. Current methods for developing scenarios for climate change adaptation planning are often focused on exploring uncertainties in future climate, but new approaches are needed to better represent uncertainties in ecological responses.

Pathways for sustainable coexistence with wildfires

Year of Publication
2024
Publication Type

Sustainable coexistence with wildfire requires overcoming vicious cycles that trap socio-ecological systems in maladaptive states. A carefully coordinated programme of innovation, education and governance, the ‘wildfire adaptation triad’, is essential for escaping maladaptation across national, community and individual scales.

Road fragment edges enhance wildfire incidence and intensity, while suppressing global burned area

Year of Publication
2024
Publication Type

Landscape fragmentation is statistically correlated with both increases and decreases in wildfire burned area (BA). These different directions-of-impact are not mechanistically understood. Here, road density, a land fragmentation proxy, is implemented in a CMIP6 coupled land-fire model, to represent fragmentation edge effects on fire-relevant environmental variables.

Climate change mitigation-adaptation relationships in forest management: perspectives from the fire-prone American West

Year of Publication
2024
Publication Type

Minimizing negative impacts of climate change on human and natural systems requires mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to new climate conditions. Forestry provides grounds to study the relationship between these two concepts: carbon flux and storage are ecosystem services of forests, while forests are growing increasingly vulnerable to climate-driven disturbances.