As climate warms, trees are expected to track their ideal climate, referred to as ‘range shifts’; however, lags in tree range shifts are currently common.
Fire exclusion over the last two centuries has driven a significant fire deficit in the forests of western North America, leading to widespread changes in the composition and structure of these historically fire-adapted ecosystems.
In the mountainous regions of the Western United States, increasing wildfire activity and climate change are putting forests at risk of regeneration failure and conversion to non-forests. During periods with unfavorable climatic conditions, locations that are suitable for post-fire tree regeneration (regeneration refugia) may be essential for forest recovery.
Fire frequency in boreal forests has increased via longer burning seasons, drier conditions, and higher temperatures. However, fires have historically self-regulated via fuel limitations, mediating the effects of changes in climate and fire weather.
The number of large, high-severity wildfires has been increasing across the western United States over the last several decades. It is not fully understood how changes in the frequency of large, severe wildfires may impact the resilience of conifer forests, due to alterations in regeneration success or failure.
Large high-severity burn patches are increasingly common in southwestern US dry conifer forests. Seed-obligate conifers often fail to quickly regenerate large patches because their seeds rarely travel the distances required to reach core patch area.
Fire exclusion and past management have altered the composition, structure, and function of frequent-fire forests throughout western North America. In mixed-conifer forests of the California Sierra Nevada, fire exclusion has exacerbated the effects of drought and endemic bark beetles, resulting in extensive mortality of fire-adapted pine species.
Tree regeneration is a critical mechanism of forest resilience to stand-replacing wildfire (i.e., where fire results in >90 % tree mortality), and post-fire regeneration is a concern worldwide as the climate becomes warmer.
Climate change and disturbance are altering forests and the rates and locations of tree regeneration. In semi-arid forests of the southwestern USA, limitations imposed by hot and dry conditions are likely to influence seedling survival.
The western United States is projected to experience more frequent and severe wildfires in the future due to drier and hotter climate conditions, exacerbating destructive wildfire impacts on forest ecosystems such as tree mortality and unsuccessful post-fire regeneration.