Research Database
Displaying 41 - 60 of 70
Towards improving wildland firefighter situational awareness through daily fire behaviour risk assessments in the US Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin
Year: 2017
Wildland firefighters must assess potential fire behaviour in order to develop appropriate strategies and tactics that will safely meet objectives. Fire danger indices integrate surface weather conditions to quantify potential variations in fire spread rates and intensities and therefore should closely relate to observed fire behaviour. These indices could better inform fire management decisions if they were linked directly to observed fire behaviour. Here, we present a simple framework for relating fire danger indices to observed categorical wildland fire behaviour. Ordinal logistic…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event
Year: 2017
Following changes in vegetation structure and pattern, along with a changing climate, large wildfire incidence has increased in forests throughout the western U.S. Given this increase there is great interest in whether fuels treatments and previous wildfire can alter fire severity patterns in large wildfires. We assessed the relative influence of previous fuels treatments (including wildfire), fire weather, vegetation and water balance on fire severity in the Rim Fire of 2013. We did this at three different spatial scales to investigate whether the influences on fire severity changed across…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The Fire Weather Accuracy and Lightning Ignition Probability System
Year: 2015
Weather forecasts can help identify environmental conditions conducive to prescribed burning or to increased fire danger. These conditions are important components of fire management tools such as fire ignition potential maps, fire danger rating systems, fire behavior predictions, and smoke dispersion modeling. Fire managers use these tools to make decisions on when to conduct prescribed burns, how to manage wildfires, and how to pre-position fire suppression forces. Forecast weather conditions provide variables such as temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, precipitation (or lack…
Publication Type: Report
The Potential Impact of Regional Climate Change on Fire Weather in the United States
Year: 2015
Climate change is expected to alter the frequency and severity of atmospheric conditions conducive for wildfires. In this study, we assess potential changes in fire weather conditions for the contiguous United States using the Haines Index (HI), a fire weather index that has been employed operationally to detect atmospheric conditions favorable for large and erratic fire behavior. The index summarizes lower atmosphere stability and dryness into an integer value with higher values indicting more fire-prone conditions. We use simulations produced by the North American Regional Climate Change…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Fuel treatments and landform modify landscape patterns of burn severity in an extreme fire event
Year: 2014
Under a rapidly warming climate, a critical management issue in semiarid forests of western North America is how to increase forest resilience to wildfire. We evaluated relationships between fuel reduction treatments and burn severity in the 2006 Tripod Complex fires, which burned over 70 000 ha of mixed-conifer forests in the North Cascades range of Washington State and involved 387 past harvest and fuel treatment units. A secondary objective was to investigate other drivers of burn severity including landform, weather, vegetation characteristics, and a recent mountain pine beetle outbreak.…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States
Year: 2014
Seasonal changes in the climatic potential for very large wildfires (VLWF ≥ 50,000 ac ~ 20,234 ha) across the western contiguous United States are projected over the 21st century using generalized linear models and downscaled climate projections for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Significant (p ≤ 0.05) increases in VLWF probability for climate of the mid-21st century (2031–2060) relative to contemporary climate are found, for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The largest differences are in the Eastern Great Basin, Northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountains, and Southwest.…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Modifying the Canadian Fine Fuel Moisture Code for masticated surface fuels
Year: 2014
Mechanical mastication is a fuel management technique that disrupts the vertical continuity of forest fuels by shredding of trees and understory vegetation into a highly compacted surface fuel bed. Despite the increasing application of mastication to manage wildfire risk, there is little information to date on fuel moisture in masticated fuels and optimal ignition patterns for prescribed burning. We investigated the applicability of the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), a component of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System, in tracking the diurnal and day-to-day changes in masticated…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The influence of experimental wind disturbance on forest fuels and fire characteristics
Year: 2014
Current theory in disturbance ecology predicts that extreme disturbances in rapid succession can lead to dramatic changes in species composition or ecosystem processes due to interactions among disturbances. However, the extent to which less catastrophic, yet chronic, disturbances such as wind damage and fire interact is not well studied. In this study, we simulated wind-caused gaps in a Pinus taeda forest in the Piedmont of north-central Georgia using static winching of trees to examine how wind damage may alter fuel characteristics and the behavior of subsequent prescribed fire. We found…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Mapping day-of-burning with coarse-resolution satellite fire-detection data
Year: 2014
Evaluating the influence of observed daily weather on observed fire-related effects (e.g. smoke production, carbon emissions and burn severity) often involves knowing exactly what day any given area has burned. As such, several studies have used fire progression maps – in which the perimeter of an actively burning fire is mapped at a fairly high temporal resolution – or MODIS satellite data to determine the day-of-burning, thereby allowing an evaluation of the influence of daily weather. However, fire progression maps have many caveats, the most substantial being that they are rarely mapped…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Analysis of Meteorological Conditions for the Yakima Smoke Intrusion Case Study, 28 September 2009
Year: 2013
On 28 September 2009, the Naches Ranger District on the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest in south-central Washington State ignited an 800-ha prescribed fire. Later that afternoon, elevated PM2.5 concentrations and visible smoke were reported in Yakima, Washington, about 40 km east of the burn unit. The U.S. National Weather Service forecast for the day had predicted good dispersion conditions and winds that would carry the smoke to the less populated area north of Yakima. We undertook a case study of this event to determine whether conditions leading to the intrusion of the smoke plume into…
Publication Type: Report
Relationships between climate and macroscale area burned in the western United States
Year: 2013
Increased wildfire activity (e.g. number of starts, area burned, fire behaviour) across the western United States in recent decades has heightened interest in resolving climate–fire relationships. Macroscale climate–fire relationships were examined in forested and non-forested lands for eight Geographic Area Coordination Centers in the western United States, using area burned derived from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity dataset (1984–2010). Fire-specific biophysical variables including fire danger and water balance metrics were considered in addition to standard climate variables of…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Estimating Critical Climate - Driven Thresholds in Landscape Dynamics Using Spatial Simulation Modeling: Climate Change Tipping Points in Fire Management
Year: 2013
Climate projections for the next 20-50 years forecast higher temperatures and variable precipitation for many landscapes in the western United States. Climate changes may cause or contribute to threshold shifts, or tipping points, where relatively small shifts in climate result in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in landscape patterns and fire regimes. Rather than simulate potential climate-fire interactions using future climate data derived from Global Climate Models (GCMs), we developed sets of progressively warmer and drier or wetter climate scenarios that span and exceed the range of…
Publication Type: Report
Climate Change Quarterly: Summer 2013
Year: 2013
A historical record of Pacific Northwest (defined here as west of the Cascade Mountains in Washington and Oregon) heat waves is identified using the U.S. Historical Climate Network, version 2, daily data (1901–2009). Both daytime and nighttime events are examined, defining a heat wave as three consecutive days above the 99th percentile for the maximum and minimum temperature anomalies separately. Although the synoptic characteristics of the daytime and nighttime heat events are similar, they do indicate some differences between the two types of events. Most notable is a stronger influence of…
Publication Type: Report
Commonalities of Carbon Dioxide Exchange in Semiarid Regions with Monsoon and Mediterranean Climates
Year: 2012
Comparing biosphereatmosphere carbon exchange across monsoon (warm-season rainfall) and Mediterranean (cool-season rainfall) regimes can yield information about the interaction between energy and water limitation. Using data collected from eddy covariance towers over grass and shrub ecosystems in Arizona, USA and Almeria, Spain, we used net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE), gross ecosystem production (GEP), and other meteorological variables to examine the effects of the different precipitation seasonality. Considerable crossover behavior occurred between the two rainfall regimes. As…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Climatic, Landform, Microtopographic, and Overstory Canopy Controls of Tree Invasion in a Subalpine Meadow Landscape, Oregon Cascades, USA
Year: 2012
Tree invasions have been documented throughout Northern Hemisphere high elevation meadows, as well as globally in many grass and forb-dominated ecosystems. Tree invasions are often associated with large-scale changes in climate or disturbance regimes, but are fundamentally driven by regeneration processes influenced by interactions between climatic, topographic, and biotic factors at multiple spatial scales. The purpose of this research was to quantify spatiotemporal patterns of meadow invasion; and how climate, larger landforms, topography, and overstory trees have interactively influenced…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Changes to Dryland Rainfall Result in Rapid Moss Mortality and Altered Soil Fertility
Year: 2012
Arid and semi-arid ecosystems cover ~40% of Earth's terrestrial surface, but we know little about how climate change will affect these widespread landscapes. Like many drylands, the Colorado Plateau in southwestern United States is predicted to experience elevated temperatures and alterations to the timing and amount of annual precipitation. We used a factorial warming and supplemental rainfall experiment on the Colorado Plateau to show that altered precipitation resulted in pronounced mortality of the widespread moss Syntrichia caninervis. Increased frequency of 1.2mm summer rainfall events…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Atmospheric Interactions with Wildland Fire Behaviour II. Plume and Vortex Dynamics
Year: 2012
This paper is the second of two reviewing scientific literature from 100 years of research addressing interactions between the atmosphere and fire behaviour. These papers consider research on the interactions between the fuels burning at any instant and the atmosphere, and the interactions between the atmosphere and those fuels that will eventually burn in a given fire. The first paper reviews the progression from the surface atmospheric properties of temperature, humidity and wind to horizontal and vertical synoptic structures and ends with vertical atmospheric profiles. This second paper…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Evidence of Enhanced Freezing Damage in Treeline Plants During Six Years of CO 2 Enrichment and Soil Warming
Year: 2012
Climate change and elevated atmospheric CO 2 levels could increase the vulnerability of plants to freezing. We analyzed tissue damage resulting from naturally occurring freezing events in plants from a longterm in situ CO 2 enrichment (+ 200 ppm, 2001-2009) and soil warming (+ 4°C since 2007) experiment at treeline in the Swiss Alps (Stillberg, Davos). Summer freezing events caused damage in several abundant subalpine and alpine plant species in four out of six years between 2005 and 2010. Most freezing damage occurred when temperatures dropped below -1.5°C two to three weeks after snow melt…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The Age of Western Wildfires
Year: 2012
The 2012 wildfire season isn’t over yet, but already this year is shaping up to be the one of the worst on record in the American West. According to the National Interagency Fire Center, with nearly two months still to go in the fire season, the total area already burned this year is 30 percent more than in an average year, and fires have consumed more than 8.6 million acres, an area larger than the state of Maryland. Yet, what defines a “typical” wildfire year in the West is changing. In the past 40 years, rising spring and summer temperatures, along with shrinking winter snowpack, have…
Publication Type: Report
Harmful filamentous cyanobacteria favoured by reduced water turnover with lake warming
Year: 2012
Anthropogenic-induced changes in nutrient ratios have increased the susceptibility of large temperate lakes to several effects of rising air temperatures and the resulting heating of water bodies. First, warming leads to stronger thermal stratification, thus impeding natural complete water turnover (holomixis), which compensates for oxygen deficits in the deep zones. Second, increased water temperatures and nutrient concentrations can directly favour the growth of harmful algae. Thus, lake-restoration programmes have focused on reducing nutrients to limit toxic algal blooms. Here we present…
Publication Type: Journal Article